We share weekly commentaries with investors on stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15% in a day during the course of the week. We hope you find this commentary useful.
Moderna (MRNA)
+19%
Shares of Moderna traded up ~19% on Tuesday after the company announced the positive outcomes of its personalized cancer vaccine (MRNA-4157/V940) phase-2 trial, a collaboration with Merck, for the treatment of melanoma. Moderna is a therapeutics company aiming to deliver on the promise of mRNA medicines.
Shares of Schrodinger traded up ~20% on Tuesday after the company revealed preclinical trial results of its CDC7 inhibitor SGR-2921, which has the potential to treat acute myeloid leukemia. Schrodinger is a computational chemistry company focused on building the most powerful, physics-based molecular modeling platform.
Shares of Senti Biosciences traded down ~21% on Tuesday. We believe recent volatility in the stock reflects high short interest, which periodically causes price volatility. Senti Biosciences uses genetic logic circuit technology to develop highly precise medicines and cell therapy treatments for a broad range of indications. Its technology potentially could target malignancies by enabling cells to sense and adapt to the tumor microenvironment.
Shares of Roblox traded down ~15% on Thursday after the company released November metrics. Daily active users and total hours engaged grew 15% and 10% year-over-year, respectively, while bookings increased 5-7%. Management cited a significant impact from foreign exchange rates: on a constant currency basis, bookings growth would have been 10-12%. Roblox is outperforming the broader video game market substantially: according to Sensor Tower, total mobile game revenue declined 12% year-over-year in November. We maintain strong conviction that Roblox’s growth will reaccelerate as both macro and exchange rate headwinds subside. Roblox provides a creator-first digital entertainment platform and 3D engine that allow third-party developers to create games and experiences for users internationally.
Shares of Guardant Health traded down ~27% on Friday after the company reported lackluster clinical data for its first colorectal cancer screening product, Shield. In our view, the test’s relatively low sensitivity (83%) and advanced adenoma detection rate (13%) should make commercialization challenging. Guardant’s results did meet Medicare’s minimum threshold for approval, however, so it is likely to become a player in the colorectal cancer screening market. The sell-off in its stock suggests that investors might be undervaluing Guardant’s core business and pipeline. Guardant Health is a pioneer in blood-based molecular cancer testing.
Shares of Exact Sciences traded up ~16% on Friday after one of the company’s competitors, Guardant Health (GH), published disappointing clinical trial results. Guardant’s ECLIPSE trial evaluated the performance of its blood-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening test, which is likely to compete with Exact’s flagship product, Cologuard. While Guardant’s data are sufficient for Medicare reimbursement, its test performed much worse than Cologuard’s on all evaluated metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, and precancerous lesion (adenoma) detection. We believe that Guardant’s results set a low bar for Exact’s own blood-based version of Cologuard, which will supplement the stool-based version, giving Exact the unique advantage of offering both tests under the same brand name and on the same ordering platform. Exact Sciences is a leading global provider of molecular cancer screening and prognostic testing.
注：在公司的竞争对手Guardant Health (GH)公布了令人失望的临床试验结果后，Exact Sciences的股价周五上涨了约16%。Guardant的ECLIPSE试验评估了其基于血液的结直肠癌（CRC）筛查测试的性能，该测试可能会与Exact的旗舰产品Cologuard竞争。虽然Guardant的数据足以用于医疗保险报销，但其测试在所有评估指标上的表现都比Cologuard差很多，包括敏感性、特异性和癌前病变（腺瘤）检测。我们相信Guardant的结果为埃佳特自己的血液版Cologuard设定了一个低标准，它将补充基于粪便的版本，使埃佳特具有在同一品牌和同一订购平台上提供两种测试的独特优势。埃克特科学公司是全球领先的分子癌症筛查和预后检验供应商。
