ARK 每周股评 – 12/16/2022


We share weekly commentaries with investors on stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15% in a day during the course of the week. We hope you find this commentary useful.

Moderna (MRNA)
+19%Shares of Moderna traded up ~19% on Tuesday after the company announced the positive outcomes of its personalized cancer vaccine (MRNA-4157/V940) phase-2 trial, a collaboration with Merck, for the treatment of melanoma. Moderna is a therapeutics company aiming to deliver on the promise of mRNA medicines.

Schrodinger (SDGR)
+20%Shares of Schrodinger traded up ~20% on Tuesday after the company revealed preclinical trial results of its CDC7 inhibitor SGR-2921, which has the potential to treat acute myeloid leukemia. Schrodinger is a computational chemistry company focused on building the most powerful, physics-based molecular modeling platform.

Senti Biosciences (SNTI)
-21%Shares of Senti Biosciences traded down ~21% on Tuesday. We believe recent volatility in the stock reflects high short interest, which periodically causes price volatility. Senti Biosciences uses genetic logic circuit technology to develop highly precise medicines and cell therapy treatments for a broad range of indications. Its technology potentially could target malignancies by enabling cells to sense and adapt to the tumor microenvironment.

注:周二,Senti Biosciences的股票交易量下降了~21%。我们认为该股最近的波动反映了高额的空头利息,这定期导致价格波动。Senti Biosciences利用基因逻辑电路技术,为广泛的适应症开发高度精确的药物和细胞治疗方法。它的技术有可能通过使细胞感知和适应肿瘤微环境而针对恶性肿瘤。
Roblox (RBLX)
-15%Shares of Roblox traded down ~15% on Thursday after the company released November metrics. Daily active users and total hours engaged grew 15% and 10% year-over-year, respectively, while bookings increased 5-7%. Management cited a significant impact from foreign exchange rates: on a constant currency basis, bookings growth would have been 10-12%. Roblox is outperforming the broader video game market substantially: according to Sensor Tower, total mobile game revenue declined 12% year-over-year in November. We maintain strong conviction that Roblox’s growth will reaccelerate as both macro and exchange rate headwinds subside. Roblox provides a creator-first digital entertainment platform and 3D engine that allow third-party developers to create games and experiences for users internationally.

注:Roblox的股票周四在该公司发布11月的指标后下跌了15%。日活跃用户和参与总时长分别同比增长15%和10%,而预订量增长5-7%。管理层提到了外汇汇率的重大影响:在固定汇率的基础上,预订量的增长将是10-12%。Roblox的表现大大超过了更广泛的视频游戏市场:根据Sensor Tower的数据,11月的移动游戏总收入同比下降了12%。我们对Roblox的增长将随着宏观和汇率阻力的减弱而重新加速保持坚定的信念。Roblox提供了一个创作者优先的数字娱乐平台和3D引擎,允许第三方开发者为国际用户创造游戏和体验。
Guardant Health (GH)
-27%Shares of Guardant Health traded down ~27% on Friday after the company reported lackluster clinical data for its first colorectal cancer screening product, Shield. In our view, the test’s relatively low sensitivity (83%) and advanced adenoma detection rate (13%) should make commercialization challenging. Guardant’s results did meet Medicare’s minimum threshold for approval, however, so it is likely to become a player in the colorectal cancer screening market. The sell-off in its stock suggests that investors might be undervaluing Guardant’s core business and pipeline. Guardant Health is a pioneer in blood-based molecular cancer testing.

注:Guardant Health的股票周五下跌了27%,因为该公司报告了其首个结肠直肠癌筛查产品Shield的临床数据不理想。我们认为,该测试相对较低的灵敏度(83%)和先进的腺瘤检测率(13%)应该使商业化具有挑战性。然而,Guardant的结果确实达到了医疗保险的最低批准门槛,所以它很可能成为结肠直肠癌筛查市场的一员。其股票的抛售表明,投资者可能低估了Guardant的核心业务和管道。Guardant Health是基于血液的分子癌症测试的先驱。
Exact Sciences (EXAS)
+16%Shares of Exact Sciences traded up ~16% on Friday after one of the company’s competitors, Guardant Health (GH), published disappointing clinical trial results. Guardant’s ECLIPSE trial evaluated the performance of its blood-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening test, which is likely to compete with Exact’s flagship product, Cologuard. While Guardant’s data are sufficient for Medicare reimbursement, its test performed much worse than Cologuard’s on all evaluated metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, and precancerous lesion (adenoma) detection. We believe that Guardant’s results set a low bar for Exact’s own blood-based version of Cologuard, which will supplement the stool-based version, giving Exact the unique advantage of offering both tests under the same brand name and on the same ordering platform. Exact Sciences is a leading global provider of molecular cancer screening and prognostic testing.

注:在公司的竞争对手Guardant Health (GH)公布了令人失望的临床试验结果后,Exact Sciences的股价周五上涨了约16%。Guardant的ECLIPSE试验评估了其基于血液的结直肠癌(CRC)筛查测试的性能,该测试可能会与Exact的旗舰产品Cologuard竞争。虽然Guardant的数据足以用于医疗保险报销,但其测试在所有评估指标上的表现都比Cologuard差很多,包括敏感性、特异性和癌前病变(腺瘤)检测。我们相信Guardant的结果为埃佳特自己的血液版Cologuard设定了一个低标准,它将补充基于粪便的版本,使埃佳特具有在同一品牌和同一订购平台上提供两种测试的独特优势。埃克特科学公司是全球领先的分子癌症筛查和预后检验供应商。


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