ARK 每周股评 – 4/30/2022


We share weekly commentaries with investors on stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15% in a day during the course of the week. We hope you find this commentary useful.

Teladoc (TDOC)
-40%Shares of Teladoc, the world’s largest global digital health platform, fell roughly 40% on Thursday after its quarterly earnings report. For perspective, Teladoc previously traded at these levels when it was cashflow negative in 2017. Compared to 2017, its visit volumes are 5x higher, its paid member count is twice as high, annual revenue is 5x higher, it is cashflow positive, and 1 in 6 Americans is a full Teladoc member. The primary reason for Teladoc's sudden stock decline seems to have been its 25% reduction in 2022 AEBITDA* guidance, the result primarily of higher customer acquisition costs in one of its Direct-To-Consumer (DTC) mental health channels. Since COVID-19 began, Teladoc has increased AEBITDA by more than 650% and doubled its AEBITDA margin, boosting its cash position to ~$900 million.Our five-year thesis for Teladoc is built around the company's transition from a general telehealth provider to a B2B enterprise solution for whole-person healthcare. To measure the company's progress, we track utilization––which has increased 160% since 2019––multi-service adoption––which has increased from 67% to 78% over the past year––and competitive wins. One recent example is its new contract with Northwell, New York's largest health system, which Teladoc won from a competitor based on its multi-faceted platform.That said, given the tumultuous market dynamics in digital care, management would have served shareholders and other stakeholders better with a strategy of under-promising and over-delivering. Nonetheless, we do believe that Teladoc’s long-term competitive position and product differentiation are unmatched, gearing it for superior growth over the long term.*AEBITDA = Adjusting for non-cash, stock-based compensation, which has booked almost entirely from the Livongo transaction.

注: 世界上最大的全球数字健康平台Teladoc的股票周四在其季度收益报告后下跌了大约40%。从这个角度来看,Teladoc之前在2017年现金流为负的时候也是在这个水平上交易。与2017年相比,其访问量增加了5倍,付费会员数增加了2倍,年收入增加了5倍,现金流为正,每6个美国人中就有一个是Teladoc的正式会员。Teladoc股票突然下跌的主要原因似乎是它将2022年的AEBITDA*指引降低了25%,这主要是由于其直接面向消费者(DTC)的一个心理健康渠道的客户获取成本增加。自COVID-19开始以来,Teladoc的AEBITDA增加了650%以上,AEBITDA利润率翻了一番,使其现金状况提高到约9亿美元。我们对Teladoc的五年论点是围绕着该公司从一般的远程医疗供应商过渡到全人医疗的B2B企业解决方案建立的。为了衡量该公司的进展,我们跟踪利用率--自2019年以来增加了160%--多种服务的采用--在过去一年中从67%增加到78%--以及竞争性胜利。最近的一个例子是它与纽约最大的医疗系统Northwell的新合同,Teladoc凭借其多方面的平台从竞争对手那里赢得了这一合同。尽管如此,鉴于数字医疗领域动荡的市场动态,管理层如果采取承诺不足和交付过度的策略,将更好地服务于股东和其他利益相关者。尽管如此,我们相信Teladoc的长期竞争地位和产品差异化是无可比拟的,使其在长期内有卓越的增长。
Zymergen (ZY)
-16%Shares of Zymergen traded up 15% on Monday, then corrected 16% during the rest of the week on little news. Zymergen, a product-oriented synthetic biology company focused on enzymatic and metagenomic engineering, has detailed a strategy to rebuild its business in the next few years.

注: Zymergen公司的股票在周一交易中上涨了15%,然后在本周剩下的时间里因没有什么消息而修正了16%。Zymergen是一家以产品为导向的合成生物学公司,专注于酶学和元基因组工程,它详细介绍了在未来几年重建其业务的战略。
Archer Aviation (ACHR)
+25%Shares of Archer Aviation traded up 25% on Thursday after the company announced a joint eVTOL advisory committee with United Airlines, and then JP Morgan initiated coverage with an overweight rating. Archer Aviation is an aerospace company aiming to revolutionize mobility with its electric vehicle takeoff and landing (eVTOL) products and services.

注: 周四,ACHR 航空的股价上涨了25%,此前该公司宣布与美国联合航空公司联合成立eVTOL咨询委员会,随后摩根大通启动了对该公司的报道,并给予超额评级。ACHR 航空是一家航空航天公司,旨在通过其电动汽车起飞和降落(eVTOL)产品和服务,彻底改变移动性。
Accolade (ACCD)
-50%Shares of Accolade traded down nearly 50% on Friday after the company’s earnings call. Management announced a 5% reduction in full-year revenue guidance, unchanged intermediate-term EBITDA guidance, and the loss of a marquee client, Comcast (CMCSA). Competitive noise from VC-backed entrants appears to be causing an extension in sales cycles in the self-insured employer market––a dynamic also impacting Teladoc (TDOC). In our view, these issues will be transient in the context of our five-year investment time horizon, especially because subscale competitors tend to operate with negative unit economics when VC funding dries up. While the loss of Comcast stings optically, we understand management’s decision to sacrifice lower-margin revenue and extend its liquidity position. Accolade is a pioneer in hyper-personalized healthcare benefit management for self-insured employers.

注: Accolade股价周五在该公司财报电话会议后下跌了近50%。管理层宣布全年收入指引减少5%,中期EBITDA指引不变,并失去了一个重要客户 Comcast(CMCSA)。来自风险投资公司的竞争噪音似乎导致自保雇主市场的销售周期延长--这一动态也影响了Teladoc(TDOC)。我们认为,在我们五年的投资时间范围内,这些问题将是短暂的,特别是因为当风险投资资金枯竭时,次规模的竞争者往往会以负面的单位经济效益运作。虽然失去 Comcast(CMCSA)在视觉上很刺痛,但我们理解管理层决定牺牲较低利润率的收入并延长其流动资金状况。Accolade是为自保雇主提供超个性化医疗福利管理的先驱。


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