ARK 每周股评 – 7/30/2022


We share weekly commentaries with investors on stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15% in a day during the course of the week. We hope you find this commentary useful.

Zymergen (ZY)
+16%Shares of Zymergen rose ~16% on Monday after the company announced its acquisition by Ginkgo Biosciences in a $300 million all-stock transaction. The deal should bring Zymergen's automation, software, biological assets, and institutional knowledge to Ginkgo's synthetic biology and cell programming platform ecosystem. Monday’s price increase did not bring Zymergen's market capitalization to the expected $300 million level and could reflect investor concerns that the acquisition will hit regulatory or deal covenant hurdles.Zymergen is a product-oriented synthetic biology company with a strong technological backbone in enzymatic and microbial engineering. Over the past decade, the company has invested heavily in custom, high-throughput laboratory infrastructure to accelerate its design, build, test, and learn (DBTL) cycles.

注:在Zymergen宣布被Ginkgo Biosciences以3亿美元的全股票交易收购后,该公司的股票在周一上涨了16%。该交易应将Zymergen的自动化、软件、生物资产和机构知识带到Ginkgo的合成生物学和细胞编程平台生态系统中。周一的提价并没有使Zymergen的市值达到预期的3亿美元水平,可能反映了投资者对收购会遇到监管或交易契约障碍的担忧。Zymergen是一家以产品为导向的合成生物学公司,在酶工程和微生物工程方面拥有强大的技术骨干。在过去的十年中,该公司在定制的高通量实验室基础设施方面进行了大量投资,以加快其设计、构建、测试和学习(DBTL)周期。
Coinbase (COIN)
-21%Shares of Coinbase traded down ~21% on Tuesday following reports that the SEC, as part of an insider trading case brought against a former employee, is investigating the company’s listing of several digital assets deemed to be securities. While bitcoin currently is the only cryptoasset that the SEC and CFTC agree is a non-security, Coinbase maintains that it lists no securities tokens on its platform and has submitted to the SEC a petition seeking greater regulatory clarity on the designation of digital assets.

Teladoc (TDOC)
-18%Shares of Teladoc dropped ~18% on Thursday after the company reported its second-quarter financial results. Although ARK does not make investment decisions based on short-term fluctuations, we believe that other investors are concerned that Teladoc will not be able to deliver on the steep ramp in EBITDA* it is forecasting for the fourth quarter. Based on the annual guidance it reaffirmed for this year, we estimate that Teladoc will have to generate 43% of its annual EBITDA target by way of lower advertising in the holiday quarter. In 2019, Teladoc generated 48% of its annual EBITDA in the fourth quarter, which suggests that its EBITDA assumptions for this year are not out of line.Focusing on the factors that do inform our investment decisions, we note that most key operating metrics in the quarter affirmed our long-term thesis that Teladoc will become a premier enterprise partner for hybrid care delivery in the US and perhaps elsewhere. Utilization and per-member-per-month (PMPM) spending both reached all-time highs, increasing on a year over year basis from 19% to 24% and $2.31 to $2.60, respectively, while total new member additions and chronic care enrollment surpassed analysts’ expectations.Today, 30% of chronic care enrollees use multiple Teladoc products. Illustrating its value to patients and health systems, for example, nearly 67% of new Primary360 members had not seen a physician in the last two years, and another 33% said they wouldn’t have seen a physician were it not for Primary360. Teladoc’s land-and-expand strategy also demonstrated success with several large account up-sells (Primary360 + Chronic Care). Management called out Priority Health, a major US health plan, as a particularly notable win.While consumer sentiment, discretionary spending, and paid search yields have impacted Teladoc’s EBITDA margin, we believe these forces are transient, certainly in the context of ARK’s five-year investment time horizon. Teladoc’s revenue is increasing much faster than its cost-of-goods-sold (COGS) and operating expenses, illustrating significant leverage in its core business.Teladoc is the largest global provider of whole-person, virtual-first healthcare services.*Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, adjusting for non-cash, stock-based compensation.

注:周四,Teladoc的股价在该公司公布其第二季度财务业绩后下跌了~18%。虽然ARK不根据短期波动做出投资决定,但我们认为其他投资者担心Teladoc将无法实现其预测的第四季度EBITDA*的急剧上升。根据其重申的今年的年度指导,我们估计Teladoc将不得不通过在假日季度降低广告的方式来产生其年度EBITDA目标的43%。2019年,Teladoc在第四季度产生了其年度EBITDA的48%,这表明其今年的EBITDA假设并不离谱。在关注确实为我们的投资决策提供信息的因素时,我们注意到本季度的大多数关键运营指标肯定了我们的长期论点,即Teladoc将成为美国乃至其他地区混合护理交付的首要企业合作伙伴。使用率和每会员每月(PMPM)支出都达到了历史新高,同比分别从19%增加到24%和2.31美元增加到2.60美元,而新增会员总数和慢性病护理注册人数都超过了分析家的预期。例如,近67%的Primary360新会员在过去两年中没有看过医生,另外33%的人说如果没有Primary360,他们就不会看医生,这说明了它对病人和卫生系统的价值。Teladoc的土地和扩张战略在几个大客户的向上销售(Primary360 + Chronic Care)中也显示了成功。虽然消费者情绪、可支配支出和付费搜索收益率影响了Teladoc的EBITDA利润率,但我们相信这些力量是短暂的,当然在ARK的五年投资时间范围内。Teladoc的收入增长速度远远超过其销售成本(COGS)和运营费用,说明其核心业务有很大的杠杆作用。
Roku (ROKU)
-23%Shares of Roku traded down ~23% today after the company missed both revenue and earnings estimates in its second quarter report. Management withdrew full-year revenue guidance, citing a slowdown in the growth of advertising budgets and a pullback in consumer discretionary spending, and lowered guidance for third quarter revenue growth to 3% on a year-over-year basis.In our view, the third-quarter guidance is conservative, as Roku reported more than $1 billion in ad commitments during this year's upfront selling season, representing approximately 16% of upfront CTV ad spend and 5% of total upfront ad spend. The difference between its revenue guidance and upfront results suggests that Roku expects either little-to-no revenue capture from the scatter market for the upcoming TV year and/or a prolonged accounting impact associated with lowering estimates of their advertising clients’ LTV (lifetime value).Despite the disappointing quarter and weak guidance, we believe Roku’s long-term growth story remains intact, particularly because consumers continue to adopt CTV and abandon linear TV. During the second quarter, Roku’s total active accounts increased to 63 million, or 15% on a year-over-year basis, an acceleration from 14% in the first quarter. Total hours streamed also grew 19% year-over-year to 21 billion, while average platform revenue per user increased 21% to $44.10 on a trailing twelve-month basis.Although macroeconomic headwinds are compelling advertisers to tighten their ad budgets, we believe ad spend on CTV should continue to grow as consumers defect from linear TV. According to Nielsen, US consumers aged 18-49 spent 50% of total TV time on streaming during the second quarter, but CTV ad budgets were only 22% of total TV ad budgets. In the May 2022 Interactive Advertising Bureau's 2021 Video Ad Spend & 2022 Outlook survey, 76% of all respondents––87% of the largest media spenders––ranked CTV as the #1 must-buy for media plans, and 73% indicated that they expect a decline in linear TV ad budgets.While macroeconomic conditions could continue to weigh on Roku's short-term financial performance, our outlook for Roku's growth potential remains robust. As the #1 streaming platform by hours streamed in the US, Canada, and Mexico, Roku should continue to lead the advertising shift from linear to digital TV.For further information, please see our recently published open-source Roku valuation model and associated research article. Roku is a leading television operating system and hardware provider that distributes various streaming platforms to millions of households globally.

Senti Biosciences (SNTI)
+68%Shares of Senti Biosciences traded up ~68% today after announcing the resignation of its Chief Operating Officer, Curt Herberts. The company uses genetic logic circuit technology to develop highly precise medicines and cell therapy treatments for a broad range of indications. Its technology potentially could target malignancies by enabling their cells to sense and adapt to the tumor microenvironment.

注:在宣布其首席运营官Curt Herberts辞职后,Senti Biosciences的股票今天上涨了~68%。该公司利用基因逻辑电路技术为广泛的适应症开发高度精确的药物和细胞治疗方法。其技术有可能通过使其细胞感知和适应肿瘤微环境而针对恶性肿瘤。


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